When an important variable is un-hinged, uncertainty goes up, at least for a while. This is the first reaction to the change in FX policy just announced by China, regardless of the more fundamental implications once the change is understood and days of market reaction show the new dynamics. Key here is whether this is read more
Brazil’s economy, and its asset prices, suffers from two fundamental problems that generate the symptoms we observe: political crisis, fiscal imbalance, lack of growth and high inflation. These 4 macroeconomic ailments are the manifestation of two underlying fundamental problems, and until the authorities and economic establishment debate and act on those two fundamental problems in read more
It is important to review what Greece was and what it was not. The Greek saga (which is far from over, though momentarily off the picture) is a clear symptom of un-finished business in the Eurozone, a picture of what is unsustainable about the ‘European project’. The Greek saga has also been a distraction from read more
Markets seem to have overcome the volatility experienced earlier in the year, as some key risk factors appear to have been “resolved”. There are the always-present concerns about the global business cycle and its components, and these days the US and Chinese cycles are as important as ever. But the more recent volatility seems to read more
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