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Topic: Fiscal Policy

Trump’s third way

A couple of months ago we stressed that Trump’s Presidency implied fatter tails, which meant that extreme scenarios were more likely than usual, at the expense of the status quo. The two extremes were clearly a negative scenario and a very positive scenario, reducing the probability of the center of the distribution. What has happened read more

Martin Anidjar | April 26, 2017

Fat tails

This year could continue to show an acceleration of global growth, or it could be the apex of protectionist policies leading into a trade war. True that at any point in time extreme scenarios are possible, but we believe that now the probabilities have shifted from the middle to the sides. That is what probability read more

Martin Anidjar | January 24, 2017

Brazil: not only fiscal

Brazil’s economy, and its asset prices, suffers from two fundamental problems that generate the symptoms we observe: political crisis, fiscal imbalance, lack of growth and high inflation. These 4 macroeconomic ailments are the manifestation of two underlying fundamental problems, and until the authorities and economic establishment debate and act on those two fundamental problems in read more

Martin Anidjar | July 31, 2015

Putin’s collateral damage: markets

Thanks to Russia’s surprise intervention, Syria appears to have faded as a relevant source of risk in the short term. The new initiative was good and bad for President Obama, as it did save him from a difficult fight in congress, but it also left his credibility and leadership damaged. That blow to the credibility read more

Martin Anidjar | September 13, 2013

Flows, fundamentals and Pavlov

April has so far been very volatile, as a result of the struggle between fundamentals showing incipient signs of a deceleration that brings fears of a now frequent seasonal pattern, and central bank liquidity on the other hand. Investors have grown fearful of every short-term correction, and the time of the year brings back memories read more

Martin Anidjar | April 25, 2013

The year of responsibility

Last Thursday we learnt that dissent within the Fed is on the rise, which led markets to assign a higher probability to a withdrawal of monetary stimulus over the foreseeable future. On the fiscal side, the deal struck to avoid the fiscal cliff has postponed a significant portion of the negotiations. Thus, economic policy changes read more

Martin Anidjar | January 07, 2013

Messy balance

The elections last night mean no real change with respect to the political deadlock that produced so much noise during the debt ceiling negotiations in 2011. The results from last night do not produce a material change to incentives, even though they can be interpreted as a message for ‘balance’ in the approach. Though we read more

Martin Anidjar | November 07, 2012

Short-term noise or real risk?

Gradually two of the three main risks in the markets appear to have been moderated, while the third is quickly intensifying. The European Central Bank (ECB) has eliminated the tail-risk when it provided the conditions upon which it would put its balance sheet to help bailout Spain and Italy, if necessary. Economic data in China read more

Martin Anidjar | October 26, 2012

What has changed, what has not

The volatility of the last few months made many people believe 2012 would be a repeat of 2011. We do not see much value in looking for insight about the future in past patterns or charts. A lot has changed since last year, though the main risks remain the same. We believe the risk distribution read more

Martin Anidjar | July 20, 2012

Euro crisis management: different but the same

After more than 2 years of the euro crisis coming and going, something of a catharsis is possible with the next Greek elections and its potential exit. The Spanish bank bailout announced over the weekend is part of the effort to isolate the rest of the Eurozone from a potentially very negative shock. Markets clearly read more

Martin Anidjar | June 11, 2012

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