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Topic: Monetary Policy

What kind of crisis?

Market volatility since last August has pushed people to wonder whether this is like 2008, or 1998, or what kind of crisis is this? The last 2 weeks have been brutal. Is this the beginning of something big or similar to August of last year that led to the October recovery? Who ever can claim read more

Martin Anidjar | January 20, 2016

China joins a new game

When an important variable is un-hinged, uncertainty goes up, at least for a while. This is the first reaction to the change in FX policy just announced by China, regardless of the more fundamental implications once the change is understood and days of market reaction show the new dynamics. Key here is whether this is read more

Martin Anidjar | August 11, 2015

Greek distraction

It is important to review what Greece was and what it was not. The Greek saga (which is far from over, though momentarily off the picture) is a clear symptom of un-finished business in the Eurozone, a picture of what is unsustainable about the ‘European project’. The Greek saga has also been a distraction from read more

Martin Anidjar | July 23, 2015

Fear of the new

Markets seem to have overcome the volatility experienced earlier in the year, as some key risk factors appear to have been “resolved”. There are the always-present concerns about the global business cycle and its components, and these days the US and Chinese cycles are as important as ever. But the more recent volatility seems to read more

Martin Anidjar | March 17, 2015

She will be gentle, but…

One of the key events of last week (and there were plenty) was the Fed’s decision and what Janet Yellen said in her press conference. Yellen shed some light (significant, I would say) about the Fed’s thought process towards the ‘normalization’ of monetary policy. Markets expected this information during the Jackson Hole meeting at the read more

Martin Anidjar | September 23, 2014

The Fed dance

There continues to be two fundamental risks or debates in financial markets: China’s convergence to pseudo-normal growth; and monetary policy normalization. Additionally, there is geopolitical noise, which has re-emerged in the last few weeks, and it matters at high frequency, but it is unlikely to have an effect on the global business cycle. Monetary policy read more

Martin Anidjar | July 25, 2014

Of tantrums, contradictions and fundamentals

Markets this year, and especially these last few weeks, seem to be saying contradictory things. Major equity markets have shown no clear direction with non-trivial volatility. While on the other hand, debt markets seem to show a bearish global growth bias. There are many reasons for each of the markets to have done what they read more

Martin Anidjar | May 20, 2014

The Atari view of China

Two weeks ago we participated in investor meetings at the Spring IMF Meetings in DC. One of the key concerns expressed by investors was a possible hard landing in China. By now this is a repetitive subject in our writings, but what concerns us as much as a hard landing is the apparently generalized view read more

Martin Anidjar | April 24, 2014

The elephant and the seed

The New different risks we highlighted in the previous note remain the 2 key market drivers: G7 monetary policy normalization (especially the US), and China’s business cycle and reform/rebalancing efforts. Obviously there are other themes and risks, as the US business cycle and the pace of the incipient European recovery, or the accumulation of emerging read more

Martin Anidjar | February 24, 2014

New different risks

The nature of the key risk factors has changed in a significant way. The main risk factors that threatened markets over the last 2-3 years have faded / been resolved / disappeared. Those risk factors shared a crucial feature, that their different resolution scenarios could and were imagined with some detail, and that their time-profile read more

Martin Anidjar | January 22, 2014

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